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Smack It, SMCI! Storyboard, Part II

Super Micro Computer's stock again slashed in half after breaking support. A third support band identified [UPDATED: November 10, 2024]

Jump to the 2024-11-10 update ]

Squeezed into a small, converging space between its weekly MA support and resistance bands for multiple weeks, SMCI, Super Micro Computer’s stock, had a big move brewing.

In our October 19th post, Super Micro Computer, a Storyboard, we wrote:

…this is a tight spot that can launch SMCI to either direction. A break below the support band may be brutal. A break above resistance may be brutal as well, for short sellers.

A week passed and Super Micro Computer’s stock could still not break below its support band nor above its 8-week EMA, although SMCI tingled its resistance:

SMCI, unable to close above its 8-week EMA resistance line, as of Sunday, 27 October 2024, weekly chart

The space between the support and resistance bands narrowed even more. Last week, on Wednesday’s news, market participants sent SMCI down viciously through the support band:

SMCI, smacking through its support band, as of Wednesday, 30 October 2024, weekly chart

Previously, when SMCI broke below its weekly support band in July of 2024, it has done it fiercely. As a result, the stock’s value got slashed in half:

SMCI, from $80 to $40 after breaking below its support band, as of Sunday, 6 October 2024, weekly chart

The pattern seems to repeat itself. As of the close of the last weekly trading session, the stock’s value is approaching another slash in half:

SMCI, on the way to get slashed in half again, weekly chart

Where’s the next support level?

A current MA calculation puts it at around $20:

SMCI’s 372-week EMA (body) support line is @ $20.43 and its 366-week EMA (wick) support line is @ $20.68:

SMCI, with its current MA support and resistance bands, weekly chart

SMCI may find some rest there. We’ll keep watching.

2024-11-10 Update

In the week that passed since the publication of the above post, SMCI hit both marks:

  • The stock’s value got slashed in half again (and a bit more) since it broke below the weekly MA support band.
  • Price reached the new support band and bounced off of it.

SMCI, bouncing off its current MA support band, weekly chart

Zooming in:

SMCI, bouncing off its current MA support band, weekly chart, zoom in

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