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10-Year Treasury Note Yield – Here We Go Again!

Are you still counting? TNX/^TNX again touches its long-term support. Is this the break? [UPDATED: July 27, 2024]

Jump to the 2024-07-27 update ]

We’ve written about it time and again: when the 10-Year treasury note yield breaks its best respected MA support lines with conviction, then market participants may change their view on the yield and on the stock market.

Well, guess what – the yield knocks on the support lines again, after putting a new local lower high:

TNX / ^TNX, yet again touches its 59-week SMA support line, weekly chart

TNX ended last week right at support. The last yield rate closed at 4.213% while the 59-week SMA line printed 4.204%.

Together, the 59-week SMA and the 70-week SMA form the line in the sand.

As done many times in the past, the yield might bounce up from this support level. The other option, a break below support, is as good as the first option. If a break below support is in the cards, then as in the previous case, market participants will look for conviction.

2024-07-27 Update

In the six weeks since we published the above post, TNX has traded three weeks above the 59-week SMA line and three weeks below it.

Although the yield spent the last three weeks below the 59-week SMA line, it was still above the 70-week SMA. In other words, in the last three weeks, TNX traded between the MA lines that form the support band:

TNX / ^TNX between its 59-week SMA and 70-week SMA support lines, weekly chart

Zooming in:

TNX / ^TNX between its 59-week SMA and 70-week SMA support lines, weekly chart, zoom in

The yield hasn’t changed much compared to where it was six weeks ago (from 4.213% to 4.200%), and it is still in a crossroad that could launch it to go either way.

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