[ Jump to the 2024-03-16 update ]
[ Jump to the 2024-03-10 update ]
Throughout our collection of posts and updates on the 10-Year treasury note yield, we have seen the yield bouncing off its support area, defined by its best respected moving average support lines: the 59-week SMA and the 70-week SMA.
On the weekly chart of TNX, these simple moving average lines span from the bottom-left to the top-right, forming an easy-to-spot ascending formation.
By bouncing off the support area multiple times, the yield formed a series of higher lows, which continued to form a series of higher highs.
In the last 9 weeks the yield bounced off the support area once again, and by riding on an ascending formation, it constituted another higher low:
So far nothing disrupted the pattern. Yes, TNX has technically broken below the long time 59-week SMA support line, and even closed below the 70-week SMA; however, it was not done with conviction, which some market participants want to see before they change their view on the yield.
Are we about to see another higher high? Or will the spectacle be a convincing break of the support area?
2024-03-10 Update
It’s been a month since we last posted on TNX. During that time, the 10-Year treasury note yield went up and down, and closed last week at 4.089%:
The yield, again, came close to the good ol’ support lines – the 59-week SMA and the 70-week SMA.
We’ll keep watching for a bounce, a convincing break, or a stroll along the support lines.
2024-03-16 Update
Bounce. Strong bounce. The 10-Year treasury note yield closed a week at the highest rate since the close of the week of 20 November, 2023 (ended Friday, 24 November, 2023).
For now, TNX refuses to break the super strong support area, defined by the 59-week SMA and the 70-week SMA lines.