[ Jump to the 2024-01-21 update ]
[ Jump to the 2024-01-07 update ]
[ Jump to the 2023-12-25 update ]
We have been waiting for this moment.
A year and 9 months have passed since we first wrote about the 10-Year treasury note yield (TNX, ^TNX). During that time we’ve been watching the yield’s movement and its “threats” to break below its best respected 59-week SMA. That break can indicate the beginning of a trend change in the market.
The last few times that TNX exchanged punches with this strong support line were in April and May of 2023, however, the line won these battles.
Then came last week. And another punch battle began.
The note yield painted a long red candle, printed a low of 3.885%, and eventually closed at 3.928%. The 59-week SMA is looking to the yield right in the eye from 3.925%:
Zooming in:
This is it. From here – the battle can last a few weeks like it has in the past, or can end quickly with a big KO punch.
We hope you got yourself a big bucket of popcorn.
2023-12-25 Update
It has been a week since the above “Ding! Ding!” post came out and TNX spent this time right at the support line area.
Technically, it has broken the long time 59-week SMA support line that registered in January 2021, however, one must note that the 59-week SMA is sitting at 3.921% and TNX ended the week at 3.901%. For some market participants that gap has no conviction and another week of trading is warranted.
In addition, some market participants use MA support and resistance lines as area / level markers rather than cling to the cent accuracy level (refer to: How accurate are the moving averages when acting as support and resistance lines?)
Regardless of how you work with MA support and resistance lines, you now know that TNX is at support, and it spent last week at that area. With that intel, you can prep your next move.
We will keep tracking and reporting on how the 10-Year treasury note yield is doing.
Happy holidays!
2024-01-07 Update
Two weeks after the previous post and the 10-Year treasury note yield could not leave its long time support line pals behind:
After spending three weekends together, TNX closed last week slightly distant from its pals, and again – above them.
Is this over? Absolutely not. Can TNX go back down to reunite with its pals? Absolutely yes.
We’ll keep updating right in these pages.
2024-01-21 Update
How did the 10-Year treasury note yield “know” where to turn?
We track the underlying and its best respected moving average lines for a long time now. We know its 59-week SMA and its 70-week SMA support lines registered 3 years ago, and we know TNX has been respecting them since:
When these support lines break with conviction, then market participants may change their view on the yield. Until then – TNX printed another higher low, right at the support area.